Dec 23, 2024
Wake up, India; you are one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change.
India will be one of the most affected countries in the era of climate consequences. According to the World Risk Report 2023, India is ranked third among 193 countries for disaster risk. India's exposure to earthquakes, tsunamis, coastal flooding, riverine flooding, cyclones, droughts, and sea level rise is very high. India is susceptible because of poor socio-economic development, the existence of social disparities, and vulnerable population groups. India also lacks the coping and adaptive capacities to meet the climate disaster. (https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2024/). The Global Climate Risk Index places India as the seventh most vulnerable country globally. (https://www.germanwatch.org/de/19777).
There will be productivity losses in agriculture that could lead to high food inflation. A falling income could lead to social unrest. It could hamper the economy's ability to withstand shocks. Medium and small-scale industry sectors would be disproportionately impacted by climate change because they do not have adequate safeguard mechanisms or the ability to undertake adaptation strategies. Within the industry, the thermal coal power plant and steel would be particularly impacted because their production processes are highly water-intensive. Climate change thus could impact India's credit rating. India's insurance, mortgage, and real-estate sectors would see a meltdown in regions most affected by climate change.
The cost of climate change due to high emissions could be higher at 35% of India's GDP compared to 24% for developing Asia by 2100. More than 50 million Indians are expected to move into poverty by 2040 if the climate crisis remains unresolved across the world. Agricultural output alone is predicted to drop by 16%, equivalent to a 2.8% GDP loss by 2030. This figure will increase in the future due to abnormal rainfall patterns that affect the activities of agricultural workers. (https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/economic-costs-of-climate-change-in-india-and-policy-responses/111802551)
In climate-induced migration, India ranks 4th in the world. By 2050, 45 million Indians will have migrated from one place to another due to climate-induced disruptions. Another negative impact of climate change is visible in terms of an increase in malnutrition and health-related disorders such as child stunting. It is also predicted that child stunting will increase by 35% by 2050 in India. As the tropic of cancer passes through India, it faces an increased risk of heat-related incidents. Heat-related incidents caused a 191 billion labor hours loss in 2022. Heatwaves in India have led to the loss of 252 lives in 2023. Malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea, and other related diseases due to heat waves and extreme weather conditions are expected to cause 250,000 deaths in India between 2030 and 2050.
Author: Dushyant C. Kothari